Least possession in the Premier League and still in third place: it’s possible

Nottingham Forest made a deliberate tactical choice on Monday to let Tottenham Hotspur control most of the ball.

Despite having just 30 percent possession, The Tricky Trees came away with an impressive 1-2 victory over Spurs, who currently sit 16th in the Premier League and continue to struggle near the bottom of the table. Forest, on the other hand, are defying expectations and now find themselves in third place with only five games left in the season. A Champions League spot, something that seemed unthinkable at the start of the campaign, is now well within their grasp. What makes their rise even more remarkable is the fact that Forest are at the very bottom of the league when it comes to average possession, challenging conventional wisdom about how success in modern football is achieved.

With an average of just 39.3 percent possession over the course of the season, Forest are ranked below a host of mid-table and struggling sides such as Everton (39.8%), Ipswich Town (39.9%), Crystal Palace (43.0%), Leicester City (45.2%), and Wolverhampton Wanderers (47.1%). Possession has traditionally been associated with control and dominance, especially in the Premier League, where teams like Manchester City and Liverpool have built their success on dictating the tempo of matches. Yet Forest have flipped this narrative, showing that clinical finishing, defensive solidity, and tactical discipline can be just as effective.

It’s incredibly rare for a team with so little of the ball to perform at such a high level. In fact, throughout the Premier League’s long history, only twice has a club with under 50 percent average possession managed to finish in the top four. In the 2004/05 season, Everton defied expectations to secure fourth place with 48.5 percent possession, relying on a similar compact and counter-attacking approach. The most famous example, however, is Leicester City, who stunned the world by winning the Premier League title in 2015/16 under Claudio Ranieri. They achieved that remarkable feat with just 42.4 percent possession across the season, a record low for a title-winning side. Nottingham Forest now look poised to shatter even that benchmark, as their current average of 39.3 percent would set a new historic low for a top-four club.

Forest’s manager, Nuno Espírito Santo, has remained unfazed by critics or statistics that suggest possession equals power. For him, results matter most, and he has built a team identity focused on being tough to break down and ruthlessly efficient on the break. "We have a clear way of playing and have found our identity," Nuno told the BBC after the match. "When you’re ahead, you can’t ignore that the priority is to keep things tight." His side has embraced this philosophy, and their defensive record is among the best in the league. Only Liverpool, with 14 clean sheets, have a better record than Forest, who have managed to shut out opponents in 13 matches this season.

The match against Tottenham was another textbook example of Forest’s approach. Spurs dominated possession, controlling the tempo and dictating play for long spells, but struggled to penetrate Forest’s disciplined backline. Forest, meanwhile, were patient, waiting for their chances to counter. When those chances came, they took them with precision, scoring twice and leaving the hosts stunned. The victory not only gave Forest three vital points but also sent a clear message to the rest of the league: possession isn’t everything.

Forest’s rise this season has been nothing short of extraordinary, especially when considering where they were just a year ago. Last season, they were locked in a desperate battle against relegation, only securing survival in the final weeks. The transformation under Nuno has been dramatic, turning them from relegation candidates into one of the most effective and feared teams in the league.

Premier League 2024/25 Average Possession Rankings:

• 1. Manchester City – 61.6%
• 2. Chelsea – 58.4%
• 3. Liverpool – 57.8%
• 4. Tottenham Hotspur – 57.0%
• 5. Arsenal – 57.0%
• 6. Manchester United – 53.0%
• 7. Brighton – 52.4%
• 8. Fulham – 52.0%
• 9. Aston Villa – 51.4%
• 10. Newcastle United – 50.3%
• 11. Southampton – 49.8%
• 12. Bournemouth – 48.0%
• 13. West Ham United – 47.8%
• 14. Brentford – 47.5%
• 15. Wolverhampton – 47.1%
• 16. Leicester City – 45.1%
• 17. Crystal Palace – 43.0%
• 18. Ipswich Town – 39.9%
• 19. Everton – 39.8%
• 20. Nottingham Forest – 39.3%

With this latest 1-2 win and just a handful of matches remaining, Nottingham Forest stand on the verge of making history. Their low-possession, high-efficiency style continues to defy the odds and rewrite the rules of success in English football. They are proving that you don’t need to dominate the ball to dominate the league table. As they push towards a top-four finish, and possibly more, Forest are showing that tactical clarity, discipline, and belief can take a team further than possession stats ever could.