Overturning a three-goal deficit: Real Madrid can do it

Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Jude Bellingham might want to avoid checking the odds before stepping onto the pitch tonight it could easily dampen their spirits.

According to the bookmakers, Real Madrid have just a 4 percent chance of reaching the Champions League semi-finals, where Paris Saint-Germain already await. It’s a brutally low number, one that would demoralize almost any team. But Real Madrid are not just any team. If there’s one club capable of laughing in the face of probability and pulling off a miracle, it’s the 14-time European champions the undisputed kings of the Champions League.

At 21:00 tonight, the Santiago Bernabéu will host yet another high-stakes European night. Arsenal arrive in the Spanish capital carrying a commanding 3-0 lead from the first leg in London. That result shocked many not because Arsenal aren’t a top side, but because of how comprehensively they dismantled Madrid. The Gunners were efficient, dominant, and fearless, everything Real Madrid usually are on these nights. Now, Los Blancos must summon something extraordinary to reverse the damage.

Coming back from three goals down against a team as well-organized and defensively disciplined as Arsenal is no small task. Mikel Arteta’s side have not conceded more than two goals in a single official match in nearly 500 days an astonishing run of consistency that has underpinned their resurgence both domestically and in Europe. With William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães forming a wall in defense, Declan Rice anchoring the midfield, and Martin Ødegaard orchestrating play with calm authority, Arsenal have grown into a team built not only to win, but to control.

But football is never just about tactics and numbers not in Madrid, and certainly not in the Bernabéu. Because if you want to understand why a 4 percent chance feels threatening when it involves Real Madrid, you have to look at history. Not the recent sort, but the deep, myth-building kind that has shaped the soul of this club.

In 1975, the script was similar. In the second round of the European Cup, Real Madrid were thrashed 4-1 by Derby County in England. Most people wrote them off. But at the Bernabéu, they pulled off a stunning 5-1 win after extra time. Santillana a name that still echoes through the halls of the club scored the decisive goal in the 99th minute. It was one of the first great comebacks that planted the seed of belief in the DNA of the club.

Nine years later, in 1984, it happened again. This time, it was Anderlecht who handed Madrid a 3-0 defeat in Brussels. But what felt like a fatal blow turned into another classic comeback. Back in Madrid, Real exploded to a 6-1 win. Emilio Butragueño netted a hat-trick, and captain José Antonio Camacho ever confident had declared even before the second leg, “That’s nothing. We’ll score four.” They scored six.

Then came 1985. The test grew harder. Borussia Mönchengladbach had dismantled Real 5-1 in Germany. A four-goal swing was required. But in Madrid, impossible is just another challenge. The final score? 4-0. Santillana once again stepped up with a brace, sending Real through in what seemed like an unreal turnaround. Ten years after his heroics against Derby County, he was still writing chapters in Madrid’s book of miracles.

These aren’t just stories. They are part of the reason the Bernabéu is feared across Europe. It’s not just a stadium it’s a temple where history breathes and belief lives. And in this arena, 4 percent is more than enough. Because Madrid don’t need probabilities they need one moment, one goal, one spark. Then the rest takes care of itself.

That’s why, despite the commanding lead, Arsenal cannot feel safe. They may be younger, sharper, and perhaps tactically superior at the moment but they’re also stepping onto a pitch haunted by decades of football magic. The moment Real score one, everything shifts. The crowd roars, the belief spreads, and what seemed like a dead tie becomes a volcano waiting to erupt.

Mikel Arteta knows this. His team has been drilled to remain calm under pressure, to stay compact and ruthless. But tonight, more than tactics, it’s mentality that will be tested. Arsenal are on the cusp of reaching a Champions League semi-final for the first time since 2009. But between them and that achievement stands a club that doesn’t die even when buried.

The stakes are enormous, the pressure unimaginable, and the setting iconic. What happens tonight could be another chapter in Madrid’s long romance with the improbable or a defining statement from an Arsenal team ready to step into Europe’s elite. Either way, history will be watching.

And as for the Gunners, they can take solace in one thing: Santillana retired in 1988.